Auxerre 2-2 Lens — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 14 Dec 2024

Auxerre
2-2 HT 1-2
Lens
📅14/12/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Auxerre vs Lens Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.87
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
42%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.95
Over 2.5
50%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.44
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
3.27
6+ Goals
9%
12.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.44 — our 27% vs market 22.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
6.75
1/2
8%
23.4
1/X
7%
15.1
X/1
12%
8.94
X/2
14%
4.14
X/X
9%
5.16
2/1
10%
34.5
2/2
20%
2.32
2/X
7%
14.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
22%
+12.7pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.4pp
42%
Away Win
53%
-11.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.4pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Auxerre v Lens — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Auxerre EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Lens EU Bookmakers 57%
+13% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -1%
1.64/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/0.88
+30% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +92%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
318 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 431 · 83%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
16.7 Crosses 22.7
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2

Auxerre vs Lens Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Auxerre
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Lens
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.23 xG 2.30
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
290 Passes 387
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.06.2023 Auxerre Auxerre 1-3 HT 0-1 Lens Lens FR1
14.01.2023 Lens Lens 1-0 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
21.10.2019 Lens Lens 0-0 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
09.03.2019 Lens Lens 2-0 HT 1-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
06.10.2018 Auxerre Auxerre 1-2 HT 0-1 Lens Lens FR2
11.05.2018 Lens Lens 2-1 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2

Auxerre 2-2 Lens — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Auxerre
2-2
AWAY Lens
0.58 xG 1.61
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
284 Passes 515
77% Pass Accuracy 87%
19 Box Touches 27
21 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Auxerre vs Lens
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Auxerre and Lens shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Lens at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Auxerre had 39% of the ball to Lens's 61%, shots finished 10-16, expected goals 0.58 to 1.61.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lens led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Auxerre and 1.67 for Lens.

What was the final score of Auxerre vs Lens?

Auxerre 2-2 Lens in the France - Ligue 1 on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Auxerre vs Lens?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lens win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Auxerre 35%, draw 23%, Lens 42%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lens)
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