Marsilya 1-1 Lille — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 14 Dec 2024

Marsilya
1-1 HT 1-0
Lille
📅14/12/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Marsilya vs Lille Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
39%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.86
Over 2.5
54%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.73
No
45%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.19
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.47
6+ Goals
13%
13.75
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.47 — our 25% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.82
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.25
X/1
13%
4.62
X/2
12%
7.25
X/X
6%
4.65
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
18%
5.33
2/X EV+ ✗
14%
13.7
Value flag · 2/X at 13.7 — our 14% vs market 4.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
46%
-10.9pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.8pp
39%
Away Win
27%
+11.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
50%
-4.4pp
54%
Over 2.5
50%
+4.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
+1.0pp
45%
BTTS No
46%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Marsilya v Lille — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marsilya EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Lille EU Bookmakers 30%
+8% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
1.51/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.24
+12% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +40%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
387 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 77%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
19.0 Crosses 12.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7

Marsilya vs Lille Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marsilya
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Lille
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.19 xG 1.42
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
414 Passes 303
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.04.2024 Lille Lille 3-1 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
04.11.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 0-0 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FR1
20.05.2023 Lille Lille 2-1 HT 0-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
10.09.2022 Marsilya Marsilya 2-1 HT 1-1 Lille Lille FR1
16.01.2022 Marsilya Marsilya 1-1 HT 0-1 Lille Lille FR1
03.10.2021 Lille Lille 2-0 HT 1-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1

Marsilya 1-1 Lille — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Marsilya
1-1
AWAY Lille
1.21 xG 1.44
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
516 Passes 373
90% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 29
10 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Marsilya vs Lille
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marsilya and Lille couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 26% / 39% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Marsilya had 56% of the ball to Lille's 44%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 1.21 to 1.44.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lille led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Marsilya and 1.50 for Lille.

What was the final score of Marsilya vs Lille?

Marsilya 1-1 Lille in the France - Ligue 1 on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marsilya vs Lille?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Marsilya 35%, draw 26%, Lille 39%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lille), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lille) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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