Mafra 0-0 Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 15 Jan 2024

Mafra
0-0 HT 0-0
Nacional
📅15/01/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Mafra vs Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
39%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.97
Over 2.5
51%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.66
No
53%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.39
2-3 Goals
44%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.27
6+ Goals
8%
12.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.39 — our 27% vs market 23.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
17%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
17%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
41%
-3.1pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.5pp
40%
Away Win
33%
+6.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.9pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mafra v Nacional — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mafra EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional EU Bookmakers 37%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +3%
1.42/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.53
+0% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
316 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
20.2 Crosses 20.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5

Mafra vs Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mafra
2W-2D-0L
AWAY Nacional
2.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.68 xG 1.59
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
336 Passes 261
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
13.02.2023 Mafra Mafra 3-3 HT 1-2 Nacional Nacional POR2
21.08.2022 Nacional Nacional 0-2 HT 0-1 Mafra Mafra POR2
13.03.2022 Mafra Mafra 3-2 HT 1-1 Nacional Nacional POR2
08.02.2020 Mafra Mafra 1-1 HT 1-0 Nacional Nacional POR2

Mafra 0-0 Nacional — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mafra
0-0
AWAY Nacional
1.75 xG 0.71
63% Ball Possession 37%
21 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 3
14 Corners 4
358 Passes 207
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
33 Crosses 10
POST-MATCH Mafra vs Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mafra and Nacional fought out a 0-0 stalemate. Neither side could find a way through.

Our pre-match split (38% / 23% / 40%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Mafra had 63% of the ball to Nacional's 37%, shots finished 21-13, expected goals 1.75 to 0.71.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Mafra had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.25 goals for Mafra and 1.50 for Nacional.

What was the final score of Mafra vs Nacional?

Mafra 0-0 Nacional in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 15/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mafra vs Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Mafra 38%, draw 23%, Nacional 40%. The final score 0-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Nacional), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nacional) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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