Torreense 1-0 Penafiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 15 Jan 2024

📅15/01/2024 · 🕒23:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.9
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.6
Over 2.5
43%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.06
No
56%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.33
2-3 Goals
44%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
4.76
6+ Goals
9%
27.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
48%
-1.2pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.9pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.4pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Torreense EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Penafiel EU Bookmakers 27%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -16%
1.46/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.47
+6% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -17%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
336 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.4 Crosses 19.6
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Torreense
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Penafiel
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.97 xG 0.97
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
316 Passes 412
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.05.2023 Torreense Torreense 5-1 HT 2-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
14.01.2023 Penafiel Penafiel 0-0 HT 0-0 Torreense Torreense POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Torreense
1-0
AWAY Penafiel
1.19 xG 2.17
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 24
4 Shots on Target 3
0 Corners 4
407 Passes 328
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Crosses 35
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Torreense vs Penafiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Torreense squeezed past Penafiel 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Torreense as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Torreense had 54% of the ball to Penafiel's 46%, shots finished 11-24, expected goals 1.19 to 2.17 — on chances, Penafiel could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Torreense had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Torreense and 0.50 for Penafiel.

What was the final score of Torreense vs Penafiel?

Torreense 1-0 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 15/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Torreense vs Penafiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Torreense win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Torreense 47%, draw 27%, Penafiel 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Torreense), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Torreense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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POR2 More Portugal - 2nd Division
15 Jan 2024
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