Sepahan 1-3 Al Hilal Riyadh — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 15 Feb 2024

Sepahan
1-3 HT 1-0
Al Hilal Riyadh
📅15/02/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
AFC Sampiyonlar League – 2023/2024

Sepahan vs Al Hilal Riyadh Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.48
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
49%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.34
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.47
6+ Goals
10%
13.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.34 — our 29% vs market 24.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
7.77
1/2
9%
23.3
1/X
7%
16.0
X/1
6%
9.79
X/2
11%
3.79
X/X
10%
5.12
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
29%
2.09
2/X
10%
15.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
19%
+5.3pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.8pp
49%
Away Win
57%
-8.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.9pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sepahan v Al Hilal Riyadh — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sepahan EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Hilal Riyadh EU Bookmakers 61%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
0.94/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.60/0.50
-100% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / +131%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
265 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 410 · 82%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.2
18.0 Crosses 20.8
– Yellow Cards 2.2

Sepahan vs Al Hilal Riyadh Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sepahan
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Al Hilal Riyadh
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
19 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
The Meetings
22.04.2014 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh 1-0 HT 1-0 Sepahan Sepahan AŞMP

Sepahan 1-3 Al Hilal Riyadh — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sepahan
1-3
AWAY Al Hilal Riyadh
1.06 xG 1.85
23% Ball Possession 77%
6 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 7
120 Passes 543
68% Pass Accuracy 91%
8 Box Touches 27
7 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sepahan vs Al Hilal Riyadh
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Hilal Riyadh beat Sepahan 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Al Hilal Riyadh as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Sepahan had 23% of the ball to Al Hilal Riyadh's 77%, shots finished 6-12, expected goals 1.06 to 1.85.

What was the final score of Sepahan vs Al Hilal Riyadh?

Sepahan 1-3 Al Hilal Riyadh in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 15/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sepahan vs Al Hilal Riyadh?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Hilal Riyadh win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Sepahan 25%, draw 27%, Al Hilal Riyadh 49%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Hilal Riyadh) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Hilal Riyadh) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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