Botafogo SP 1-4 Corinthians — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Paulista A1, 15 Feb 2024

📅15/02/2024 · 🕒03:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
4.04
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
46%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
Over
43%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
No
54%
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2-3
41%
4-5
21%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
5%
X/2
17%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
21%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
29%
Home Win
22%
+7.5pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.4pp
46%
Away Win
56%
-9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo SP The Market 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Corinthians The Market 60%
+3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -11%
1.23/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/0.92
-40% / +80% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / -7%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
240 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 408 · 82%
14.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
17.3 Crosses 18.3
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botafogo SP
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Corinthians
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.63 xG 1.51
35% Ball Possession 65%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
256 Passes 595
80% Pass Accuracy 90%
10 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
06.02.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 2-0 HT 2-0 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BREPAU
20.02.2022 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 1-1 HT 0-1 Corinthians Corinthians BREPAU
24.01.2020 Corinthians Corinthians 4-1 HT 1-0 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BREPAU
30.06.2019 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 2-1 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians HAZ
25.02.2019 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 0-1 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BREPAU
11.03.2018 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 0-2 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BREPAU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo SP
1-4
AWAY Corinthians
37% Ball Possession 63%
21 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 1
158 Passes 353
66% Pass Accuracy 82%
POST-MATCH Botafogo SP vs Corinthians
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Corinthians ran out comfortable winners over Botafogo SP 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Corinthians as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Botafogo SP had 37% of the ball to Corinthians's 63%, shots finished 21-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Corinthians led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Botafogo SP and 1.83 for Corinthians.

What was the final score of Botafogo SP vs Corinthians?

Botafogo SP 1-4 Corinthians in the Brazil - Paulista A1 on 15/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo SP vs Corinthians?

Before kick-off our model rated an Corinthians win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Botafogo SP 29%, draw 25%, Corinthians 46%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Corinthians) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Corinthians) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BREPAU More Brazil - Paulista A1
15 Feb 2024
01:00 Ituano vs Mirassol FC Analysis →