Ituano 1-1 Mirassol FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Paulista A1, 15 Feb 2024

📅15/02/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
16.01
Draw
35%
8.11
Away
45%
1.06
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
54%
Over
46%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Total Goals
0-1
21%
2-3
52%
4-5
19%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
11%
1/X
4%
X/1
7%
X/2
7%
X/X
23%
2/1
7%
2/2
26%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
20%
Home Win
3%
+16.9pp
35%
Draw
8%
+26.1pp
45%
Away Win
88%
-42.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ituano The Market 6%
Head to Head
AWAY Mirassol FC The Market 94%
+35% / +35% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+150% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
270 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 410 · 82%
14.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
8.0 Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ituano
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Mirassol FC
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.43 xG 1.48
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 6
320 Passes 318
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.10.2023 Ituano Ituano 0-0 HT 0-0 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC BR2
04.07.2023 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Ituano Ituano BR2
17.02.2023 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Ituano Ituano BREPAU
29.08.2021 Ituano Ituano 2-1 HT 2-1 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC BRE3
26.06.2021 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC 1-2 HT 1-0 Ituano Ituano BRE3
07.03.2021 Ituano Ituano 1-1 HT 0-1 Mirassol FC Mirassol FC BREPAU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ituano
1-1
AWAY Mirassol FC
34% Ball Possession 66%
10 Total Shots 25
6 Shots on Target 11
1 Corners 8
211 Passes 489
78% Pass Accuracy 90%
POST-MATCH Ituano vs Mirassol FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ituano and Mirassol FC shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Mirassol FC at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Ituano had 34% of the ball to Mirassol FC's 66%, shots finished 10-25.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ituano had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ituano and 0.67 for Mirassol FC.

What was the final score of Ituano vs Mirassol FC?

Ituano 1-1 Mirassol FC in the Brazil - Paulista A1 on 15/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ituano vs Mirassol FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Mirassol FC win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Ituano 20%, draw 35%, Mirassol FC 45%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Mirassol FC) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mirassol FC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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BREPAU More Brazil - Paulista A1
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