Lanus 0-1 El Porvenir — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Cup, 15 Mar 2024

📅15/03/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
63%
1.22
Draw
21%
5.71
Away
16%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under
44%
2.51
Over
56%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1
20%
5.35
2-3
40%
1.99
4-5
28%
2.68
6+
12%
6.65
Value flag · 0-1 at 5.35 — our 20% vs market 14.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
16%
X/2
4%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Lanus win — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
63%
Home Win
77%
-14.1pp
21%
Draw
14%
+6.5pp
16%
Away Win
8%
+7.5pp
44%
Under 2.5
36%
+8.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
64%
-8.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.6pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lanus The Market 82%
Head to Head
AWAY El Porvenir The Market 11%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+56% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
415 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Lanus vs El Porvenir
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Porvenir edged past Lanus 1-0 away from home.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Lanus at 63% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Lanus vs El Porvenir?

Lanus 0-1 El Porvenir in the Argentina - Cup on 15/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lanus vs El Porvenir?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lanus win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Lanus 63%, draw 21%, El Porvenir 16%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Lanus), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lanus) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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