Cherno More Varna 2-1 CSKA 1948 Sofia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 15 Mar 2024

📅15/03/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
24%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.75
Over 2.5
50%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
61%
-9.6pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.2pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+8.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
53%
-2.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
47%
+2.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.5pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cherno More Varna EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY CSKA 1948 Sofia EU Bookmakers 19%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +18%
2.11/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.35
+24% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +22%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
318 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 5.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cherno More Varna
0W-3D-0L
AWAY CSKA 1948 Sofia
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
22.09.2023 CSKA 1948 Sofia CSKA 1948 Sofia 1-1 HT 0-1 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
20.05.2023 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 1-1 HT 0-1 CSKA 1948 Sofia CSKA 1948 Sofia BUL1
30.04.2023 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 0-0 HT 0-0 CSKA 1948 Sofia CSKA 1948 Sofia BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cherno More Varna
2-1
AWAY CSKA 1948 Sofia
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cherno More Varna vs CSKA 1948 Sofia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cherno More Varna squeezed past CSKA 1948 Sofia 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Cherno More Varna as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Cherno More Varna had 55% of the ball to CSKA 1948 Sofia's 45%, shots finished 14-8.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Cherno More Varna and 0.67 for CSKA 1948 Sofia.

What was the final score of Cherno More Varna vs CSKA 1948 Sofia?

Cherno More Varna 2-1 CSKA 1948 Sofia in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 15/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cherno More Varna vs CSKA 1948 Sofia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cherno More Varna win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Cherno More Varna 51%, draw 25%, CSKA 1948 Sofia 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cherno More Varna) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cherno More Varna) ✗ BTTS No
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BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
15 Mar 2024
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