Polonia Warszawa 2-2 Wisla Plock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 15 Mar 2024

📅15/03/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
41%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.82
Over 2.5
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.23
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.64
6+ Goals
9%
14.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.23 — our 28% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
9%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-0.8pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.0pp
41%
Away Win
39%
+1.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+0.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-0.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.5pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Polonia Warszawa EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Wisla Plock EU Bookmakers 43%
-23% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -4%
1.00/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.43
-24% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -23%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
309 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Polonia Warszawa
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Wisla Plock
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 3
02.09.2023 Wisla Plock Wisla Plock 3-0 HT 2-0 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Polonia Warszawa
2-2
AWAY Wisla Plock
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Polonia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Polonia Warszawa and Wisla Plock couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Wisla Plock at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Polonia Warszawa had 42% of the ball to Wisla Plock's 58%, shots finished 14-18.

What was the final score of Polonia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock?

Polonia Warszawa 2-2 Wisla Plock in the Poland - 1st Division on 15/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Polonia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock?

Before kick-off our model rated an Wisla Plock win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Polonia Warszawa 33%, draw 26%, Wisla Plock 41%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Wisla Plock) ✗ Under 2.5
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