Lech Poznan 2-0 Warta Poznan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 15 Mar 2024

📅15/03/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.44
Over 2.5
43%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.6
No
57%
1.43
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
1.99
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
19%
6.67
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.38
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
8%
19.0
X/1
21%
3.44
X/2
11%
9.3
X/X
6%
3.7
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
8%
9.13
2/X
11%
20.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
54%
-1.7pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.6pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+5.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
66%
-8.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
34%
+8.9pp
43%
BTTS Yes
34%
+8.5pp
57%
BTTS No
66%
-8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Warta Poznan EU Bookmakers 21%
-8% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -6%
1.54/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.45
-13% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +18%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
322 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 71%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
22.6 Crosses 13.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lech Poznan
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Warta Poznan
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.64 xG 0.98
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
468 Passes 246
82% Pass Accuracy 71%
25 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
17.09.2023 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan 0-2 HT 0-1 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
08.04.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-0 HT 1-0 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan POL
18.09.2022 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan 0-1 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
14.05.2022 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan 1-2 HT 1-2 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
28.11.2021 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-0 HT 0-0 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan POL
26.02.2021 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan 1-2 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lech Poznan
2-0
AWAY Warta Poznan
0.96 xG 1.08
61% Ball Possession 39%
10 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 4
425 Passes 245
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
29 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Lech Poznan vs Warta Poznan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lech Poznan beat Warta Poznan 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lech Poznan as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Lech Poznan had 61% of the ball to Warta Poznan's 39%, shots finished 10-19, expected goals 0.96 to 1.08.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lech Poznan had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Lech Poznan and 0.33 for Warta Poznan.

What was the final score of Lech Poznan vs Warta Poznan?

Lech Poznan 2-0 Warta Poznan in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 15/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lech Poznan vs Warta Poznan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Lech Poznan 52%, draw 24%, Warta Poznan 24%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lech Poznan), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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