Al Fayha 1-1 Al Riyadh — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League, 15 Mar 2024

📅15/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
31%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.91
Over 2.5
51%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.47
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.44
6+ Goals
11%
13.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.47 — our 27% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-8.1pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.8pp
31%
Away Win
22%
+8.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.2pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Fayha EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Riyadh EU Bookmakers 25%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +31% / +31%
1.39/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.29
-24% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +61% / +6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
365 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 77%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.2
18.9 Crosses 10.8
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Fayha
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Al Riyadh
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.77 xG 0.84
44% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
360 Passes 454
85% Pass Accuracy 88%
17 Box Touches 20
10 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.09.2023 Al Riyadh Al Riyadh 1-2 HT 1-2 Al Fayha Al Fayha SAKK
22.09.2023 Al Riyadh Al Riyadh 1-3 HT 0-1 Al Fayha Al Fayha SUUD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Fayha
1-1
AWAY Al Riyadh
0.95 xG 0.51
53% Ball Possession 47%
7 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 1
0 Corners 2
427 Passes 363
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 20
7 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Al Fayha vs Al Riyadh
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Fayha and Al Riyadh couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Al Fayha at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Al Fayha had 53% of the ball to Al Riyadh's 47%, shots finished 7-8, expected goals 0.95 to 0.51.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Al Fayha had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Al Fayha and 1.00 for Al Riyadh.

What was the final score of Al Fayha vs Al Riyadh?

Al Fayha 1-1 Al Riyadh in the Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League on 15/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Fayha vs Al Riyadh?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Fayha win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Al Fayha 45%, draw 24%, Al Riyadh 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Al Fayha), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Al Fayha) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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