Nacional vs Estoril Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Nacional v Estoril — Team-Based Signals
Nacional vs Estoril Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-2
HT 1-0
Estoril
PORLC
1-2
HT 0-1
Nacional
POR2
2-1
HT 2-0
Nacional
HAZ
Nacional 0-1 Estoril — Actual Match Statistics
Estoril edged past Nacional 1-0 away from home.
Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 31%) promised a tight game; Estoril found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Nacional had 55% of the ball to Estoril's 45%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 0.76 to 1.13.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Estoril led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Nacional and 1.50 for Estoril.
What was the final score of Nacional vs Estoril?
Nacional 0-1 Estoril in the Portugal - Premier League on 15/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Nacional vs Estoril?
Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Nacional 40%, draw 29%, Estoril 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Nacional), BTTS Yes went the other way.