Hapoel Beer Sheva 1-0 Maccabi Tel Aviv — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Israel - Ligat HaAl, 15 Apr 2024

📅15/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.29
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
49%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
3.29
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
3.65
6+ Goals
12%
14.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.29 — our 25% vs market 25.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
8%
X/2
25%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
27%
+1.0pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.3pp
49%
Away Win
47%
+2.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+0.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-0.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.5pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hapoel Beer Sheva EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Maccabi Tel Aviv EU Bookmakers 50%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +34% / +34%
1.34/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.28
-1% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% /
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
293 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 77%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.0
15.5 Crosses 15.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hapoel Beer Sheva
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Maccabi Tel Aviv
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.98 xG 1.49
46% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
261 Passes 323
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.02.2024 Maccabi Tel Aviv Maccabi Tel Aviv 1-0 HT 1-0 Hapoel Beer Sheva Hapoel Beer Sheva İSR
20.12.2023 Hapoel Beer Sheva Hapoel Beer Sheva 0-1 HT 0-1 Maccabi Tel Aviv Maccabi Tel Aviv İSR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hapoel Beer Sheva
1-0
AWAY Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.14 xG 0.87
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 9
306 Passes 377
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 23
9 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hapoel Beer Sheva nicked a narrow win over Maccabi Tel Aviv 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Maccabi Tel Aviv at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Hapoel Beer Sheva had 45% of the ball to Maccabi Tel Aviv's 55%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 1.14 to 0.87.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Maccabi Tel Aviv led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Hapoel Beer Sheva and 1.00 for Maccabi Tel Aviv.

What was the final score of Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv?

Hapoel Beer Sheva 1-0 Maccabi Tel Aviv in the Israel - Ligat HaAl on 15/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv?

Before kick-off our model rated an Maccabi Tel Aviv win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Hapoel Beer Sheva 28%, draw 23%, Maccabi Tel Aviv 49%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Maccabi Tel Aviv) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Maccabi Tel Aviv) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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