Atalanta 2-2 Hellas Verona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 15 Apr 2024

📅15/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.47
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
23%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
4.05
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.09
6+ Goals
11%
9.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.05 — our 24% vs market 19.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.81
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
17.3
X/1
24%
3.66
X/2
10%
12.75
X/X
10%
6.2
2/1
8%
21.85
2/2
8%
9.9
2/X
8%
18.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
64%
-10.6pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.0pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+7.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.0pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atalanta EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Hellas Verona EU Bookmakers 19%
-8% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -6%
1.91/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.39
+17% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +14%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
422 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 77%
33.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
21.2 Crosses 14.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atalanta
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Hellas Verona
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.31 xG 1.19
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
324 Passes 293
72% Pass Accuracy 72%
28 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
27.09.2023 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 0-1 HT 0-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
20.05.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 3-1 HT 1-1 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
28.08.2022 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 0-1 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
18.04.2022 Atalanta Atalanta 1-2 HT 0-1 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona İTA
12.12.2021 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 1-2 HT 1-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
21.03.2021 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 0-2 HT 0-2 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atalanta
2-2
AWAY Hellas Verona
1.54 xG 1.52
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 13
9 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
389 Passes 231
78% Pass Accuracy 68%
25 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atalanta vs Hellas Verona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atalanta and Hellas Verona shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Atalanta at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Atalanta had 59% of the ball to Hellas Verona's 41%, shots finished 16-13, expected goals 1.54 to 1.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atalanta had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Atalanta and 0.67 for Hellas Verona.

What was the final score of Atalanta vs Hellas Verona?

Atalanta 2-2 Hellas Verona in the Italy - Serie A on 15/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atalanta vs Hellas Verona?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Atalanta 53%, draw 24%, Hellas Verona 23%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atalanta) ✗ BTTS No
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