Fiorentina 1-1 Genoa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 15 Apr 2024

📅15/04/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.82
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
30%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.67
Over 2.5
47%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.99
No
52%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.68
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
4.36
6+ Goals
10%
22.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.45
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.9
X/1
10%
3.95
X/2
12%
8.45
X/X
11%
4.29
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
12%
7.06
2/X
7%
15.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
51%
-7.1pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.6pp
30%
Away Win
22%
+7.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
46%
+1.5pp
52%
BTTS No
54%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Genoa EU Bookmakers 25%
+3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +0%
1.77/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.39
+7% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +15%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
334 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 81%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
21.5 Crosses 13.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fiorentina
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Genoa
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.71 xG 0.91
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
479 Passes 292
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
28 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
19.08.2023 Genoa Genoa 1-4 HT 0-3 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
17.01.2022 Fiorentina Fiorentina 6-0 HT 3-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
18.09.2021 Genoa Genoa 1-2 HT 0-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
03.04.2021 Genoa Genoa 1-1 HT 1-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
07.12.2020 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-1 HT 0-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
25.01.2020 Fiorentina Fiorentina 0-0 HT 0-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fiorentina
1-1
AWAY Genoa
1.50 xG 1.51
59% Ball Possession 41%
20 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
374 Passes 234
86% Pass Accuracy 76%
29 Box Touches 11
28 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fiorentina vs Genoa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fiorentina and Genoa shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Fiorentina at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Fiorentina had 59% of the ball to Genoa's 41%, shots finished 20-7, expected goals 1.50 to 1.51.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fiorentina had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Fiorentina and 0.67 for Genoa.

What was the final score of Fiorentina vs Genoa?

Fiorentina 1-1 Genoa in the Italy - Serie A on 15/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fiorentina vs Genoa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Fiorentina 44%, draw 26%, Genoa 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Fiorentina), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fiorentina) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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