CSKA 1948 Sofia 2-1 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 — Result, Stats & Model Review (Bulgaria - 1st Division, 15 Apr 2024)

CSKA 1948 Sofia

2-1 HT 1-1

Lokomotiv Sofia 1929

📅15/04/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3

Top 2 Score Predictions

1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗

Bulgaria - 1st Division – 2023/2024

CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions

Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend

⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.

Match Result

Home

39%

1.89

Draw

31%

3.11

Away

30%

3.83

Under/Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57%

1.59

Over 2.5

43%

2.23

Both Teams to Score

Yes

47%

2.06

53%

1.68

Total Goals

0-1 Goal

31%

2-3 Goals

38%

4-5 Goals

21%

6+ Goals

10%

Half Time / Full Time

1/1

19%

1/2

1/X

X/1

15%

X/2

X/X

18%

2/1

2/2

14%

2/X

PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine

Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline

✋

Decision

No Bet — Skip This Match

The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.

Model vs Market — where we differ

iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers

40%

Home Win

49%

-9.3pp

31%

Draw

29%

+2.1pp

30%

Away Win

23%

+7.1pp

57%

Under 2.5

59%

-2.2pp

43%

Over 2.5

41%

+2.2pp

47%

BTTS Yes

44%

+2.8pp

53%

BTTS No

56%

-2.8pp

gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

CSKA 1948 Sofia v Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine

iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals

HOME CSKA 1948 Sofia EU Bookmakers 53%

Head to Head

AWAY Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 EU Bookmakers 26%

+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +31% / +31%

1.00/0.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/0.81

-23% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +37% / +37%

52% Ball Possession 48%

13 Total Shots 10

5 Shots on Target 4

5 Corners 4

368 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 76%

– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –

– Crosses –

2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4

CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings

Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings

HOME CSKA 1948 Sofia

1W-2D-0L

AWAY Lokomotiv Sofia 1929

1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33

56% Ball Possession 44%

16 Total Shots 8

6 Shots on Target 4

7 Corners 7

5 Yellow Cards 2

The Meetings

21.10.2023 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929

0-0 HT 0-0

CSKA 1948 Sofia BUL1

10.05.2023 CSKA 1948 Sofia

2-2 HT 1-2

Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 BULK

26.04.2023 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929

2-3 HT 1-3

CSKA 1948 Sofia BULK

CSKA 1948 Sofia 2-1 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result

Real recorded figures from this match

HOME CSKA 1948 Sofia

2-1

AWAY Lokomotiv Sofia 1929

50% Ball Possession 50%

14 Total Shots 15

6 Shots on Target 6

2 Corners 4

4 Yellow Cards 1

POST-MATCH CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia 1929

iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CSKA 1948 Sofia nicked a narrow win over Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 31% / 30%) promised a tight game; CSKA 1948 Sofia found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, CSKA 1948 Sofia had 50% of the ball to Lokomotiv Sofia 1929's 50%, shots finished 14-15.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, CSKA 1948 Sofia had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for CSKA 1948 Sofia and 1.33 for Lokomotiv Sofia 1929.

What was the final score of CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia 1929?

CSKA 1948 Sofia 2-1 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 15/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia 1929?

Before kick-off our model rated a CSKA 1948 Sofia win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split CSKA 1948 Sofia 40%, draw 31%, Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CSKA 1948 Sofia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CSKA 1948 Sofia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No

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