Ajax II 2-1 Cambuur — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 15 Apr 2024

📅15/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
34%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.33
Over 2.5
53%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.46
No
46%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.87
2-3 Goals
37%
1.94
4-5 Goals
26%
2.8
6+ Goals
12%
7.53
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.29
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
25.5
1/X
10%
12.5
X/1
16%
5.63
X/2
12%
6.08
X/X
10%
5.52
2/1
8%
24.0
2/2
14%
3.66
2/X
6%
12.5
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.5 — our 9% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
40%
-0.2pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.2pp
34%
Away Win
35%
-1.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
39%
+7.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
61%
-7.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
64%
-10.4pp
46%
BTTS No
36%
+10.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax II EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Cambuur EU Bookmakers 39%
+11% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +19%
1.47/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.15
+44% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +11%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
308 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 78%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
11.1 Crosses 16.8
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax II
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Cambuur
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.17 xG 2.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 8
294 Passes 301
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 36
11 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.08.2023 Cambuur Cambuur 4-2 HT 3-2 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
19.02.2021 Ajax II Ajax II 1-1 HT 1-0 Cambuur Cambuur HOL2
07.11.2020 Cambuur Cambuur 2-3 HT 2-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
13.12.2019 Cambuur Cambuur 0-2 HT 0-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
26.07.2019 Cambuur Cambuur 1-2 HT 1-2 Ajax II Ajax II HAZ
01.04.2019 Ajax II Ajax II 0-6 HT 0-5 Cambuur Cambuur HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax II
2-1
AWAY Cambuur
1.63 xG 1.30
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 21
8 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 9
354 Passes 303
79% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 33
9 Crosses 26
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ajax II vs Cambuur
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax II squeezed past Cambuur 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 26% / 34% — and on the day Ajax II made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Ajax II had 51% of the ball to Cambuur's 49%, shots finished 14-21, expected goals 1.63 to 1.30.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax II had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Ajax II and 2.33 for Cambuur.

What was the final score of Ajax II vs Cambuur?

Ajax II 2-1 Cambuur in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 15/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax II vs Cambuur?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax II win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Ajax II 40%, draw 26%, Cambuur 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax II), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ajax II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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