Arsenal U21 3-5 Aston Villa U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League 2 (League 1), 15 Apr 2024

📅15/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.61
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
33%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
3.68
Over 2.5
65%
1.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.33
No
42%
3.05
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
8%
1/X
4%
X/1
17%
X/2
15%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
11%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
58%
-12.4pp
21%
Draw
20%
+0.5pp
34%
Away Win
22%
+11.9pp
35%
Under 2.5
24%
+11.4pp
65%
Over 2.5
76%
-11.4pp
58%
BTTS Yes
71%
-13.1pp
42%
BTTS No
29%
+13.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal U21 EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Aston Villa U21 EU Bookmakers 25%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-15% / +88% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
392 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.3 Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal U21
3-5
AWAY Aston Villa U21
3.11 xG 1.60
57% Ball Possession 43%
20 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
421 Passes 284
87% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Arsenal U21 vs Aston Villa U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aston Villa U21 got the better of Arsenal U21 5-3 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Arsenal U21 at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (65%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Arsenal U21 had 57% of the ball to Aston Villa U21's 43%, shots finished 20-12, expected goals 3.11 to 1.60 — the balance of chances actually favoured Arsenal U21.

What was the final score of Arsenal U21 vs Aston Villa U21?

Arsenal U21 3-5 Aston Villa U21 in the England - Premier League 2 (League 1) on 15/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal U21 vs Aston Villa U21?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Arsenal U21 46%, draw 21%, Aston Villa U21 34%. The final score 3-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Arsenal U21) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arsenal U21) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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