Aston Villa 3-2 PSG — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 15 Apr 2025

📅15/04/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.84
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
44%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.29
Over 2.5
55%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.49
No
47%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.7
2-3 Goals
40%
1.93
4-5 Goals
25%
2.77
6+ Goals
11%
7.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.61
1/2
9%
21.9
1/X
9%
13.0
X/1
9%
7.22
X/2
16%
5.31
X/X
8%
5.7
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
19%
2.86
2/X
8%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
32%
-0.4pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.2pp
44%
Away Win
44%
+0.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
40%
+5.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
60%
-5.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
63%
-10.3pp
47%
BTTS No
37%
+10.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY PSG EU Bookmakers 48%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -11%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -8%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
319 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 456 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.6
Crosses 13.3
Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aston Villa
0W-0D-1L
AWAY PSG
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.86 xG 1.95
25% Ball Possession 75%
7 Total Shots 29
2 Shots on Target 10
1 Corners 9
205 Passes 795
76% Pass Accuracy 95%
9 Box Touches 58
5 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 0
09.04.2025 PSG PSG 3-1 HT 1-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa ŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aston Villa
3-2
AWAY PSG
2.05 xG 1.52
34% Ball Possession 66%
17 Total Shots 14
9 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
231 Passes 539
77% Pass Accuracy 88%
39 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Aston Villa vs PSG
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aston Villa nicked a narrow win over PSG 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was PSG at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Aston Villa had 34% of the ball to PSG's 66%, shots finished 17-14, expected goals 2.05 to 1.52.

What was the final score of Aston Villa vs PSG?

Aston Villa 3-2 PSG in the Champions League on 15/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs PSG?

Before kick-off our model rated an PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 31%, draw 25%, PSG 44%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (PSG) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (PSG) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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