USM Alger 1-0 USM El Harrach — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Algeria - National Cup, 15 Apr 2025

📅15/04/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.43
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
21%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
62%
1.45
Over
38%
2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
3.08
No
58%
1.32
Total Goals
0-1
28%
1.98
2-3
47%
1.8
4-5
17%
6.06
6+
8%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
7%
X/X
9%
2/1
11%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
66%
-12.1pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.0pp
21%
Away Win
11%
+10.2pp
62%
Under 2.5
65%
-3.8pp
38%
Over 2.5
35%
+3.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
28%
+13.9pp
58%
BTTS No
72%
-13.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME USM Alger EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY USM El Harrach EU Bookmakers 14%
-59% / -59% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +74% / +74%
1.00/2.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.00
-27% / -71% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +64% /
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
385 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 222 · 64%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME USM Alger
2W-0D-1L
AWAY USM El Harrach
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
28.11.2015 USM Alger USM Alger 2-1 HT 2-1 USM El Harrach USM El Harrach CZYR
27.09.2014 USM Alger USM Alger 0-1 HT 0-0 USM El Harrach USM El Harrach CZYR
15.02.2014 USM Alger USM Alger 2-1 HT 1-1 USM El Harrach USM El Harrach CZYR
POST-MATCH USM Alger vs USM El Harrach
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

USM Alger nicked a narrow win over USM El Harrach 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had USM Alger as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, USM Alger had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for USM Alger and 1.00 for USM El Harrach.

What was the final score of USM Alger vs USM El Harrach?

USM Alger 1-0 USM El Harrach in the Algeria - National Cup on 15/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for USM Alger vs USM El Harrach?

Before kick-off our model rated a USM Alger win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split USM Alger 54%, draw 26%, USM El Harrach 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (USM Alger), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (USM Alger) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
CZYRK More Algeria - National Cup
15 Apr 2025
20:00 Belouizdad vs El Bayadh Analysis →