BFC Daugavpils 1-1 Super Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 15 Apr 2025

📅15/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
23%
3.18
Away
34%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.68
Over 2.5
53%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.88
No
49%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+0.8pp
23%
Draw
28%
-5.0pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+4.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
56%
-8.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
44%
+8.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.3pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Super Nova EU Bookmakers 33%
+23% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -27% / -27%
1.94/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.19
+59% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -20%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
329 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 73%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
17.5 Crosses 23.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFC Daugavpils
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Super Nova
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
2.42 xG 0.72
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
222 Passes 260
67% Pass Accuracy 68%
37 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
23.09.2023 Super Nova Super Nova 0-1 HT 0-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
05.07.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 2-0 HT 0-0 Super Nova Super Nova LET
14.05.2023 Super Nova Super Nova 0-4 HT 0-3 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
01.04.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 3-0 HT 1-0 Super Nova Super Nova LET
29.10.2022 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-1 HT 0-0 Super Nova Super Nova LET
20.08.2022 Super Nova Super Nova 1-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFC Daugavpils
1-1
AWAY Super Nova
0.53 xG 1.63
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 2
0 Corners 8
223 Passes 355
72% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 42
11 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFC Daugavpils and Super Nova shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was BFC Daugavpils at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 41% of the ball to Super Nova's 59%, shots finished 8-17, expected goals 0.53 to 1.63.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, BFC Daugavpils had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for BFC Daugavpils and 0.33 for Super Nova.

What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova?

BFC Daugavpils 1-1 Super Nova in the Latvia - Virsliga on 15/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a BFC Daugavpils win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 43%, draw 23%, Super Nova 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (BFC Daugavpils), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (BFC Daugavpils) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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