Deportivo Recoleta 1-1 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Paraguay - Profesyonel League, 15 Apr 2025

📅15/04/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.34
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
52%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under
54%
1.78
Over
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.06
No Pick
58%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2-3
41%
4-5
21%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
8%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
36%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
16%
+7.5pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.5pp
52%
Away Win
60%
-8.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.2pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Recoleta EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 64%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +8%
1.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.97/0.77
+21% / +63% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -5%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
220 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
6.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Recoleta
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Libertad
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 5.00
37% Ball Possession 63%
11 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
03.02.2025 Libertad Libertad 5-2 HT 0-2 Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta PAR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Recoleta
1-1
AWAY Libertad
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Deportivo Recoleta vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Recoleta and Libertad couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Libertad at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Deportivo Recoleta had 40% of the ball to Libertad's 60%, shots finished 12-19.

What was the final score of Deportivo Recoleta vs Libertad?

Deportivo Recoleta 1-1 Libertad in the Paraguay - Profesyonel League on 15/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Recoleta vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated an Libertad win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Recoleta 23%, draw 24%, Libertad 52%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Libertad), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Libertad) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →