Atalanta 0-1 Juventus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 15 May 2024

Atalanta
0-1 HT 0-1
Juventus
📅15/05/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Italy - Cup – 2023/2024

Atalanta vs Juventus Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.38
Draw
25%
3.04
Away
31%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.6
Over 2.5
56%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.9
No
46%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2.55
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
4.65
6+ Goals
11%
25.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.65 — our 26% vs market 16.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.58
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.35
X/1
15%
5.04
X/2
14%
5.87
X/X
12%
3.82
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
32.5
2/2
12%
4.45
2/X
6%
13.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 32.5 — our 7% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
39%
+5.2pp
25%
Draw
30%
-4.8pp
31%
Away Win
31%
-0.5pp
44%
Under 2.5
59%
-14.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
41%
+14.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
49%
+5.6pp
46%
BTTS No
51%
-5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atalanta v Juventus — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atalanta EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Juventus EU Bookmakers 34%
-24% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.70/2.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.11
+30% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
375 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 79%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
15.5 Crosses 12.7
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.2

Atalanta vs Juventus Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atalanta
0W-5D-1L
AWAY Juventus
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.14 xG 1.08
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
449 Passes 410
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.03.2024 Juventus Juventus 2-2 HT 0-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
01.10.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 0-0 HT 0-0 Juventus Juventus İTA
12.08.2023 Juventus Juventus 0-0 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta HAZ
07.05.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 0-2 HT 0-0 Juventus Juventus İTA
22.01.2023 Juventus Juventus 3-3 HT 2-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
13.02.2022 Atalanta Atalanta 1-1 HT 0-0 Juventus Juventus İTA

Atalanta 0-1 Juventus — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atalanta
0-1
AWAY Juventus
0.79 xG 1.54
66% Ball Possession 34%
13 Total Shots 9
0 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 2
522 Passes 236
87% Pass Accuracy 75%
24 Box Touches 17
26 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atalanta vs Juventus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Juventus squeezed past Atalanta 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Atalanta at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atalanta had 66% of the ball to Juventus's 34%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 0.79 to 1.54.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Juventus led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Atalanta and 1.33 for Juventus.

What was the final score of Atalanta vs Juventus?

Atalanta 0-1 Juventus in the Italy - Cup on 15/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atalanta vs Juventus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Atalanta 44%, draw 25%, Juventus 31%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atalanta) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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