Reims 1-0 Marsilya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 15 May 2024

Reims
1-0 HT 1-0
Marsilya
📅15/05/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Reims vs Marsilya Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.46
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
41%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.18
Over 2.5
46%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
4.38
2-3 Goals
40%
1.88
4-5 Goals
21%
2.95
6+ Goals
9%
8.79
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.38 — our 30% vs market 17.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.78
1/2
10%
21.85
1/X
7%
13.75
X/1
11%
8.39
X/2
17%
4.43
X/X
14%
5.51
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
14%
2.38
2/X
5%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
25%
+7.1pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.7pp
41%
Away Win
50%
-9.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
42%
+11.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
58%
-11.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.3pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Reims v Marsilya — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Reims EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Marsilya EU Bookmakers 55%
+4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +13%
1.04/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.10
+8% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / +4%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
315 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 453 · 84%
16.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.2
16.3 Crosses 19.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3

Reims vs Marsilya Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Reims
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Marsilya
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.91 xG 1.43
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
292 Passes 454
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.08.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 2-1 HT 1-1 Reims Reims FR1
19.03.2023 Reims Reims 1-2 HT 1-2 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
07.08.2022 Marsilya Marsilya 4-1 HT 2-0 Reims Reims FR1
24.04.2022 Reims Reims 0-1 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
22.12.2021 Marsilya Marsilya 1-1 HT 0-0 Reims Reims FR1
23.04.2021 Reims Reims 1-3 HT 1-2 Marsilya Marsilya FR1

Reims 1-0 Marsilya — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Reims
1-0
AWAY Marsilya
1.12 xG 1.74
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 10
255 Passes 429
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 33
10 Crosses 34
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Reims vs Marsilya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Reims squeezed past Marsilya 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Marsilya at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Reims had 38% of the ball to Marsilya's 62%, shots finished 9-20, expected goals 1.12 to 1.74 — on chances, Marsilya could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marsilya led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Reims and 2.17 for Marsilya.

What was the final score of Reims vs Marsilya?

Reims 1-0 Marsilya in the France - Ligue 1 on 15/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Reims vs Marsilya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Reims 32%, draw 27%, Marsilya 41%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Marsilya), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Marsilya) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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