Nice 1-2 PSG — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 15 May 2024

Nice
1-2 HT 1-2
PSG
📅15/05/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Nice vs PSG Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.0
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.15
Over 2.5
49%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.18
2-3 Goals
38%
1.86
4-5 Goals
23%
3.03
6+ Goals
11%
9.43
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.18 — our 28% vs market 18.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.75
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
10%
13.05
X/1
13%
4.78
X/2
13%
7.05
X/X
11%
5.3
2/1
10%
22.7
2/2
11%
4.73
2/X
9%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
46%
-7.8pp
30%
Draw
25%
+5.2pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+2.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
43%
+8.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
57%
-8.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.0pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nice v PSG — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nice EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY PSG EU Bookmakers 32%
+6% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +8%
1.59/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/2.88
+1% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -30%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
414 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 80%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
19.0 Crosses 4.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.0

Nice vs PSG Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nice
2W-1D-3L
AWAY PSG
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.05 xG 1.05
38% Ball Possession 62%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
370 Passes 634
86% Pass Accuracy 91%
22 Box Touches 28
15 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
13.03.2024 PSG PSG 3-1 HT 2-1 Nice Nice FRK
15.09.2023 PSG PSG 2-3 HT 1-1 Nice Nice FR1
08.04.2023 Nice Nice 0-2 HT 0-1 PSG PSG FR1
01.10.2022 PSG PSG 2-1 HT 1-0 Nice Nice FR1
05.03.2022 Nice Nice 1-0 HT 0-0 PSG PSG FR1
31.01.2022 PSG PSG 0-0 HT 0-0 Nice Nice FRK

Nice 1-2 PSG — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nice
1-2
AWAY PSG
1.38 xG 0.97
36% Ball Possession 64%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
344 Passes 644
88% Pass Accuracy 90%
17 Box Touches 12
19 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nice vs PSG
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSG squeezed past Nice 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match split (38% / 30% / 32%) promised a tight game; PSG found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Nice had 36% of the ball to PSG's 64%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.38 to 0.97 — on chances, Nice could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSG led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Nice and 1.50 for PSG.

What was the final score of Nice vs PSG?

Nice 1-2 PSG in the France - Ligue 1 on 15/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nice vs PSG?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nice win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Nice 38%, draw 30%, PSG 32%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Nice), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nice) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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