Sai Kung 2-1 South China — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division, 15 May 2024

📅15/05/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.4
Draw
20%
4.95
Away
59%
1.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
3.59
Over 2.5
60%
1.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.46
No
50%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
16%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
19%
X/X
8%
2/1
3%
2/2
33%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
15%
+5.1pp
20%
Draw
17%
+3.1pp
59%
Away Win
68%
-8.2pp
40%
Under 2.5
24%
+15.4pp
60%
Over 2.5
76%
-15.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
64%
-14.1pp
50%
BTTS No
36%
+14.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sai Kung EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY South China EU Bookmakers 72%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
0.49/3.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.51/1.20
-55% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -4%
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
275 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 446 · 87%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sai Kung
0W-0D-1L
AWAY South China
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 9.00
40% Ball Possession 60%
3 Total Shots 21
0 Shots on Target 14
2 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
05.11.2023 South China South China 9-0 HT 3-0 Sai Kung Sai Kung HK2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sai Kung
2-1
AWAY South China
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sai Kung vs South China
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sai Kung nicked a narrow win over South China 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had South China at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%) came in.

On the day, Sai Kung had 49% of the ball to South China's 51%, shots finished 12-10.

What was the final score of Sai Kung vs South China?

Sai Kung 2-1 South China in the Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division on 15/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sai Kung vs South China?

Before kick-off our model rated an South China win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Sai Kung 21%, draw 20%, South China 59%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (South China) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (South China) ✓ Over 2.5
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