Vorskla Poltava 1-2 Shakhtar Donetsk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ukraine - Cup, 15 May 2024

📅15/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
7.78
Draw
22%
5.15
Away
52%
1.28
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.38
Over 2.5
49%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
7%
X/2
16%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
26%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
10%
+15.9pp
22%
Draw
16%
+5.7pp
52%
Away Win
74%
-21.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
38%
+13.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
62%
-13.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.4pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vorskla Poltava EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Shakhtar Donetsk EU Bookmakers 78%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -9%
0.00/4.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.48/0.25
-100% / -48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +150%
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
291 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 558 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vorskla Poltava
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Shakhtar Donetsk
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
48% Ball Possession 52%
6 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.04.2024 Vorskla Poltava Vorskla Poltava 0-1 HT 0-1 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk UKR
30.09.2023 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 1-2 HT 0-1 Vorskla Poltava Vorskla Poltava UKR
04.06.2023 Vorskla Poltava Vorskla Poltava 2-1 HT 1-0 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk UKR
23.11.2022 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 3-2 HT 1-0 Vorskla Poltava Vorskla Poltava UKR
23.10.2021 Vorskla Poltava Vorskla Poltava 0-2 HT 0-0 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk UKR
04.04.2021 Vorskla Poltava Vorskla Poltava 0-2 HT 0-1 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk UKR
POST-MATCH Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shakhtar Donetsk nicked a narrow win over Vorskla Poltava 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Shakhtar Donetsk as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shakhtar Donetsk led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.67 for Shakhtar Donetsk.

What was the final score of Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk?

Vorskla Poltava 1-2 Shakhtar Donetsk in the Ukraine - Cup on 15/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vorskla Poltava vs Shakhtar Donetsk?

Before kick-off our model rated an Shakhtar Donetsk win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Vorskla Poltava 26%, draw 22%, Shakhtar Donetsk 52%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shakhtar Donetsk) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Shakhtar Donetsk) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →