Kagoshima United 2-1 Montedio Yamagata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 15 Jun 2024

📅15/06/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.08
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
42%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.75
No
55%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.15
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.73
6+ Goals
9%
15.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 31% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
28%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
29%
+0.3pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.3pp
43%
Away Win
43%
-0.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.8pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kagoshima United EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Montedio Yamagata EU Bookmakers 46%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -9%
0.50/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.05
-55% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +0%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
275 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 379 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kagoshima United
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Montedio Yamagata
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 1
07.04.2024 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 2-0 HT 1-0 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United JAP2
15.09.2019 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United 0-3 HT 0-3 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kagoshima United
2-1
AWAY Montedio Yamagata
52% Ball Possession 48%
7 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 12
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Kagoshima United vs Montedio Yamagata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kagoshima United edged past Montedio Yamagata 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Montedio Yamagata at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kagoshima United had 52% of the ball to Montedio Yamagata's 48%, shots finished 7-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Montedio Yamagata led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Kagoshima United and 2.50 for Montedio Yamagata.

What was the final score of Kagoshima United vs Montedio Yamagata?

Kagoshima United 2-1 Montedio Yamagata in the Japan - J2 League on 15/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kagoshima United vs Montedio Yamagata?

Before kick-off our model rated an Montedio Yamagata win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Kagoshima United 30%, draw 28%, Montedio Yamagata 43%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Montedio Yamagata) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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