Montedio Yamagata 2-0 Kagoshima United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.19
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
32%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.16
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.71
6+ Goals
10%
15.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 30% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-2.1pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.9pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+1.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.5pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montedio Yamagata EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Kagoshima United EU Bookmakers 34%
+1% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -25% / -25%
1.55/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.52/1.73
+20% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -58% / -30%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
329 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 418 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montedio Yamagata
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Kagoshima United
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
37% Ball Possession 63%
8 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 0
2 Corners 7
15.09.2019 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United 0-3 HT 0-3 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montedio Yamagata
2-0
AWAY Kagoshima United
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 24
4 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Montedio Yamagata vs Kagoshima United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Montedio Yamagata beat Kagoshima United 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 32%) promised a tight game; Montedio Yamagata found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Montedio Yamagata had 56% of the ball to Kagoshima United's 44%, shots finished 16-24.

What was the final score of Montedio Yamagata vs Kagoshima United?

Montedio Yamagata 2-0 Kagoshima United in the Japan - J2 League on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montedio Yamagata vs Kagoshima United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Montedio Yamagata win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Montedio Yamagata 40%, draw 29%, Kagoshima United 32%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Montedio Yamagata), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Montedio Yamagata) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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