Cerezo Osaka 2-1 Urawa Red Diamonds — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 15 Jun 2024

📅15/06/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.47
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
35%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.82
Over 2.5
50%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.2
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.67
6+ Goals
12%
15.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.2 — our 28% vs market 25.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.75
1/2
8%
30.0
1/X
7%
12.65
X/1
15%
5.58
X/2
14%
5.65
X/X
10%
4.35
2/1
6%
29.5
2/2
13%
3.81
2/X
10%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.8pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.2pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-0.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
51%
-1.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
49%
+1.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.7pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Urawa Red Diamonds EU Bookmakers 39%
-1% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -7%
1.29/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.17
+1% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +0%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
330 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 78%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
21.6 Crosses 16.3
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Urawa Red Diamonds
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.14 xG 1.07
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
314 Passes 436
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
16.07.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-0 HT 2-0 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds JAP
04.03.2023 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds 2-1 HT 0-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
25.09.2022 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds 0-4 HT 0-2 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JLK
21.09.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-1 HT 1-0 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds JLK
14.09.2022 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds 0-1 HT 0-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
25.05.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-0 HT 0-0 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
2-1
AWAY Urawa Red Diamonds
0.40 xG 0.81
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
313 Passes 506
80% Pass Accuracy 87%
11 Box Touches 22
8 Crosses 24
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs Urawa Red Diamonds
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka nicked a narrow win over Urawa Red Diamonds 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 27% / 35% — and on the day Cerezo Osaka made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Cerezo Osaka had 40% of the ball to Urawa Red Diamonds's 60%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 0.40 to 0.81 — the balance of chances actually favoured Urawa Red Diamonds.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerezo Osaka had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Cerezo Osaka and 0.50 for Urawa Red Diamonds.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Urawa Red Diamonds?

Cerezo Osaka 2-1 Urawa Red Diamonds in the Japan - J1 League on 15/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Urawa Red Diamonds?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 38%, draw 27%, Urawa Red Diamonds 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka)
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