Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4-1 Tokyo Verdy — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 15 Jun 2024

📅15/06/2024 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.53
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
23%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.9
No
58%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.52
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
3.4
6+ Goals
9%
12.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.52 — our 28% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.87
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.85
X/1
19%
3.64
X/2
7%
12.45
X/X
11%
5.52
2/1
7%
23.6
2/2
9%
10.15
2/X
6%
17.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
61%
-8.6pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.1pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+7.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-7.0pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Tokyo Verdy EU Bookmakers 19%
-10% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.70/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.45
-4% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -7%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
437 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 74%
29.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
26.0 Crosses 14.2
0.7 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Tokyo Verdy
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 0
1 Yellow Cards 4
22.05.2024 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 2-3 HT 0-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JLK
23.07.2005 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-0 HT 3-0 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
4-1
AWAY Tokyo Verdy
2.37 xG 0.81
47% Ball Possession 53%
23 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 1
273 Passes 328
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 18
25 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Tokyo Verdy
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanfrecce Hiroshima swept aside Tokyo Verdy 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sanfrecce Hiroshima as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 47% of the ball to Tokyo Verdy's 53%, shots finished 23-13, expected goals 2.37 to 0.81.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 1.00 for Tokyo Verdy.

What was the final score of Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Tokyo Verdy?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4-1 Tokyo Verdy in the Japan - J1 League on 15/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Tokyo Verdy?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Sanfrecce Hiroshima 53%, draw 24%, Tokyo Verdy 23%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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