Tokyo Verdy 2-3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - League Cup, 22 May 2024

📅22/05/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.4
Draw
22%
4.08
Away
57%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
1.91
Over 2.5
57%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.99
No
44%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.36
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
24%
3.52
6+ Goals
14%
13.8
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.52 — our 24% vs market 23.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
6%
X/2
16%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
33%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
15%
+6.3pp
22%
Draw
21%
+0.8pp
57%
Away Win
64%
-7.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
48%
-5.5pp
57%
Over 2.5
52%
+5.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
46%
+9.7pp
44%
BTTS No
54%
-9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tokyo Verdy EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 69%
-36% / -36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
2.00/4.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.82/1.00
+89% / -50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +66% / -9%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
277 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 0.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tokyo Verdy
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
23.07.2005 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-0 HT 3-0 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tokyo Verdy
2-3
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
51% Ball Possession 49%
7 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 8
0 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanfrecce Hiroshima edged past Tokyo Verdy 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sanfrecce Hiroshima as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Tokyo Verdy had 51% of the ball to Sanfrecce Hiroshima's 49%, shots finished 7-12.

What was the final score of Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Tokyo Verdy 2-3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the Japan - League Cup on 22/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Tokyo Verdy 22%, draw 22%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 57%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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