Sagan Tosu 1-1 FC Tokyo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - League Cup, 22 May 2024

📅22/05/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
41%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.56
No
48%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.14
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
22%
3.04
6+ Goals
11%
9.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.14 — our 27% vs market 19.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
13%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
20%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
34%
-1.7pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.3pp
41%
Away Win
41%
-0.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+7.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-7.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.2pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Tokyo EU Bookmakers 45%
-23% / -32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -6%
0.36/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.10
-72% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +22%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
344 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 0.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sagan Tosu
5W-0D-1L
AWAY FC Tokyo
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.10 xG 1.30
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
359 Passes 394
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
23.09.2023 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 3-2 HT 0-2 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
01.04.2023 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
26.06.2022 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 5-0 HT 1-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
08.05.2022 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 0-1 HT 0-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
09.08.2021 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
24.04.2021 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 1-2 HT 0-2 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sagan Tosu
1-1
AWAY FC Tokyo
49% Ball Possession 51%
28 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sagan Tosu vs FC Tokyo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sagan Tosu and FC Tokyo shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was FC Tokyo at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Sagan Tosu had 49% of the ball to FC Tokyo's 51%, shots finished 28-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sagan Tosu had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Sagan Tosu and 0.67 for FC Tokyo.

What was the final score of Sagan Tosu vs FC Tokyo?

Sagan Tosu 1-1 FC Tokyo in the Japan - League Cup on 22/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sagan Tosu vs FC Tokyo?

Before kick-off our model rated an FC Tokyo win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Sagan Tosu 32%, draw 27%, FC Tokyo 41%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (FC Tokyo) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Tokyo) ✓ BTTS Yes
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