Liepaja 1-1 BFC Daugavpils — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 15 Jun 2024

📅15/06/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.74
Over 2.5
51%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
6%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
54%
-8.4pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.3pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+7.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
54%
-4.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
46%
+4.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.3pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liepaja EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 24%
-12% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.44/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.60/1.52
-18% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / -7%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
296 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 78%
30.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
23.9 Crosses 21.0
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liepaja
4W-1D-1L
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.65 xG 0.89
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
260 Passes 179
70% Pass Accuracy 60%
31 Box Touches 24
21 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
28.04.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-0 HT 0-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
05.11.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 2-1 HT 1-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
12.08.2023 Liepaja Liepaja 2-1 HT 1-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
05.06.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-2 HT 1-2 Liepaja Liepaja LET
23.04.2023 Liepaja Liepaja 1-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
09.10.2022 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 2-3 HT 1-2 Liepaja Liepaja LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liepaja
1-1
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
1.77 xG 0.71
64% Ball Possession 36%
22 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 6
13 Corners 0
360 Passes 173
80% Pass Accuracy 67%
38 Box Touches 16
45 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liepaja and BFC Daugavpils couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Liepaja at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Liepaja had 64% of the ball to BFC Daugavpils's 36%, shots finished 22-14, expected goals 1.77 to 0.71.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liepaja had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Liepaja and 1.00 for BFC Daugavpils.

What was the final score of Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils?

Liepaja 1-1 BFC Daugavpils in the Latvia - Virsliga on 15/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liepaja win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Liepaja 45%, draw 27%, BFC Daugavpils 28%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Liepaja) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →