LDU Quito 1-2 Lanus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 15 Aug 2024

📅15/08/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
22%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.75
Over 2.5
46%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.13
No
56%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.93
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.98
6+ Goals
9%
18.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.93 — our 31% vs market 28.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.91
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
18.15
X/1
16%
3.46
X/2
6%
12.25
X/X
11%
5.07
2/1
6%
26.0
2/2
12%
10.8
2/X
7%
19.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
62%
-8.5pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.7pp
22%
Away Win
15%
+6.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
53%
+0.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
47%
-0.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
43%
+1.7pp
56%
BTTS No
57%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME LDU Quito EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Lanus EU Bookmakers 18%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
0.87/0.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.53/1.65
-40% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +30%
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
388 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 73%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.3
27.0 Crosses 5.3
5.0 Yellow Cards 5.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME LDU Quito
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Lanus
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
6 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
02.10.2009 Lanus Lanus 1-1 HT 0-0 LDU Quito LDU Quito CON CSA
25.09.2009 LDU Quito LDU Quito 4-0 HT 3-0 Lanus Lanus CON CSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME LDU Quito
1-2
AWAY Lanus
1.19 xG 0.69
66% Ball Possession 34%
17 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 9
13 Corners 8
347 Passes 151
83% Pass Accuracy 69%
24 Box Touches 20
36 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH LDU Quito vs Lanus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lanus nicked a narrow win over LDU Quito 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was LDU Quito at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, LDU Quito had 66% of the ball to Lanus's 34%, shots finished 17-17, expected goals 1.19 to 0.69 — on chances, LDU Quito could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, LDU Quito had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for LDU Quito and 0.50 for Lanus.

What was the final score of LDU Quito vs Lanus?

LDU Quito 1-2 Lanus in the Copa Sudamericana on 15/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for LDU Quito vs Lanus?

Before kick-off our model rated a LDU Quito win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split LDU Quito 53%, draw 25%, Lanus 22%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (LDU Quito) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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