CA Penarol 4-0 The Strongest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 15 Aug 2024

CA Penarol
4-0 HT 3-0
The Strongest
📅15/08/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Copa Libertadores – 2024

CA Penarol vs The Strongest Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.42
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
15%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.95
Over 2.5
46%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.06
No
61%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.53
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
3.39
6+ Goals
9%
12.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.53 — our 28% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.69
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
19.8
X/1
27%
3.42
X/2
5%
15.3
X/X
10%
6.04
2/1
8%
24.45
2/2
6%
13.0
2/X
7%
20.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
66%
-4.7pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.8pp
15%
Away Win
13%
+1.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.9pp
39%
BTTS Yes
44%
-5.1pp
61%
BTTS No
56%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

CA Penarol v The Strongest — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY The Strongest EU Bookmakers 16%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -4%
1.80/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.35/2.00
+29% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -68% / +2%
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
429 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 73%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.0
21.1 Crosses 10.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.3

CA Penarol vs The Strongest Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA Penarol
1W-0D-1L
AWAY The Strongest
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 4
354 Passes 378
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
12 Box Touches 12
10 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.05.2018 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-0 HT 2-0 The Strongest The Strongest LKU
16.03.2018 The Strongest The Strongest 1-0 HT 1-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol LKU

CA Penarol 4-0 The Strongest — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA Penarol
4-0
AWAY The Strongest
2.53 xG 0.07
61% Ball Possession 39%
20 Total Shots 4
10 Shots on Target 0
8 Corners 3
409 Passes 244
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
30 Box Touches 5
33 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH CA Penarol vs The Strongest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol ran out comfortable winners over The Strongest 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had CA Penarol as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (61%) came in.

On the day, CA Penarol had 61% of the ball to The Strongest's 39%, shots finished 20-4, expected goals 2.53 to 0.07.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for CA Penarol and 0.50 for The Strongest.

What was the final score of CA Penarol vs The Strongest?

CA Penarol 4-0 The Strongest in the Copa Libertadores on 15/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA Penarol vs The Strongest?

Before kick-off our model rated a CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split CA Penarol 62%, draw 24%, The Strongest 15%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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