Botafogo 2-1 Palmeiras — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 15 Aug 2024

📅15/08/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.25
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
38%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.56
Over 2.5
45%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.03
No
52%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.36
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
5.13
6+ Goals
9%
31.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.45
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
10%
14.4
X/1
14%
4.67
X/2
12%
5.89
X/X
11%
3.78
2/1
8%
33.0
2/2
16%
4.76
2/X
5%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
40%
-4.6pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.7pp
38%
Away Win
30%
+7.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
60%
-5.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
40%
+5.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
45%
+3.3pp
52%
BTTS No
55%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 34%
+32% / +32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +32%
0.69/0.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.31
+34% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +55%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
293 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 78%
11.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.6
12.3 Crosses 12.2
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botafogo
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Palmeiras
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.47 xG 2.04
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
272 Passes 346
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 25
12 Crosses 29
3 Yellow Cards 2
18.07.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 1-0 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
02.11.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 3-4 HT 3-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
25.06.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 0-1 HT 0-1 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
04.10.2022 Botafogo Botafogo 1-3 HT 1-2 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
10.06.2022 Palmeiras Palmeiras 4-0 HT 3-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
02.02.2021 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-1 HT 1-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo
2-1
AWAY Palmeiras
1.66 xG 0.25
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 1
374 Passes 341
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 15
6 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Botafogo vs Palmeiras
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo squeezed past Palmeiras 2-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 26% / 38% — and on the day Botafogo made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Botafogo had 51% of the ball to Palmeiras's 49%, shots finished 10-7, expected goals 1.66 to 0.25 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Botafogo's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Botafogo and 2.00 for Palmeiras.

What was the final score of Botafogo vs Palmeiras?

Botafogo 2-1 Palmeiras in the Copa Libertadores on 15/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo vs Palmeiras?

Before kick-off our model rated an Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Botafogo 36%, draw 26%, Palmeiras 38%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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