Botafogo 1-0 Palmeiras — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 18 Jul 2024

📅18/07/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.53
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
34%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.74
Over 2.5
45%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
36%
+1.7pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.2pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-2.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
54%
+1.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
46%
-1.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.8pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 40%
-2% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +4%
1.53/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.34
+20% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -5%
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
292 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 82%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
19.3 Crosses 20.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botafogo
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Palmeiras
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.48 xG 2.25
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
279 Passes 380
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 2
02.11.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 3-4 HT 3-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
25.06.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 0-1 HT 0-1 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
04.10.2022 Botafogo Botafogo 1-3 HT 1-2 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
10.06.2022 Palmeiras Palmeiras 4-0 HT 3-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
02.02.2021 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-1 HT 1-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
08.10.2020 Botafogo Botafogo 2-1 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo
1-0
AWAY Palmeiras
1.77 xG 1.29
43% Ball Possession 57%
16 Total Shots 18
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
179 Passes 258
68% Pass Accuracy 75%
29 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Botafogo vs Palmeiras
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo edged past Palmeiras 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 28% / 34%) promised a tight game; Botafogo found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Botafogo had 43% of the ball to Palmeiras's 57%, shots finished 16-18, expected goals 1.77 to 1.29.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Botafogo and 2.17 for Palmeiras.

What was the final score of Botafogo vs Palmeiras?

Botafogo 1-0 Palmeiras in the Brazil - Serie A on 18/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo vs Palmeiras?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Botafogo 38%, draw 28%, Palmeiras 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Botafogo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Botafogo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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