Sao Paulo 1-0 Gremio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 18 Jul 2024

📅18/07/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.57
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
24%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
Over 2.5
40%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.09
No
59%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
36%
2.83
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.12
6+ Goals
8%
19.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.83 — our 36% vs market 29.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
60%
-9.8pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.9pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+7.9pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.8pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio EU Bookmakers 19%
-3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -4%
1.64/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.66
-2% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -10%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
375 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 74%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
24.3 Crosses 12.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Paulo
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Gremio
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.23 xG 1.08
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
448 Passes 285
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
22.10.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 3-0 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
04.06.2023 Gremio Gremio 2-1 HT 2-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
03.12.2021 Gremio Gremio 3-0 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
15.08.2021 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-1 HT 1-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
15.02.2021 Gremio Gremio 1-2 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
31.12.2020 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Paulo
1-0
AWAY Gremio
0.88 xG 1.48
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 19
8 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 9
395 Passes 322
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 12
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sao Paulo vs Gremio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Paulo nicked a narrow win over Gremio 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sao Paulo as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, Sao Paulo had 54% of the ball to Gremio's 46%, shots finished 14-19, expected goals 0.88 to 1.48 — the balance of chances actually favoured Gremio.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Sao Paulo and 1.17 for Gremio.

What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Gremio?

Sao Paulo 1-0 Gremio in the Brazil - Serie A on 18/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Gremio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 50%, draw 26%, Gremio 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sao Paulo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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