Atletico Goianiense 0-1 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 18 Jul 2024

📅18/07/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
26%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.62
Over 2.5
38%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.95
No
59%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
35%
2.56
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.62
6+ Goals
8%
25.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.56 — our 35% vs market 32.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
42%
+3.4pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.0pp
26%
Away Win
29%
-3.4pp
62%
Under 2.5
58%
+4.0pp
38%
Over 2.5
42%
-4.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
47%
-6.2pp
59%
BTTS No
53%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Goianiense EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 32%
-6% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +18%
1.36/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.44
-20% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +18%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
294 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 82%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
23.0 Crosses 19.6
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Goianiense
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Vasco da Gama
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.42 xG 1.17
46% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
307 Passes 378
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.01.2021 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 0-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
11.09.2020 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-2 HT 0-0 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1
19.10.2017 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 0-1 HT 0-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
25.06.2017 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1
24.09.2016 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR2
11.06.2016 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 2-1 HT 1-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Goianiense
0-1
AWAY Vasco da Gama
0.90 xG 1.19
52% Ball Possession 48%
19 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
296 Passes 260
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
27 Box Touches 24
29 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atletico Goianiense vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vasco da Gama squeezed past Atletico Goianiense 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Goianiense at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, Atletico Goianiense had 52% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 48%, shots finished 19-14, expected goals 0.90 to 1.19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vasco da Gama led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Atletico Goianiense and 1.00 for Vasco da Gama.

What was the final score of Atletico Goianiense vs Vasco da Gama?

Atletico Goianiense 0-1 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Serie A on 18/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Goianiense vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Goianiense win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Atletico Goianiense 46%, draw 28%, Vasco da Gama 26%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Atletico Goianiense) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Goianiense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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