Chelsea 3-1 Real Sociedad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 15 Aug 2026

📅15/08/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.53
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
26%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
2.59
Over Pick
52%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.55
No
48%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1
28%
5.54
2-3
37%
2.02
4-5
23%
2.56
6+
12%
5.87
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1.85
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.7
X/1
16%
4.37
X/2
9%
11.9
X/X
11%
7.04
2/1
14%
19.0
2/2
11%
8.49
2/X
6%
16.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.0 — our 14% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
61%
-10.7pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.4pp
26%
Away Win
18%
+8.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
35%
+13.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
65%
-13.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.8pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelsea EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Sociedad EU Bookmakers 21%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
2.83/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.82/1.38
+41% / +81% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +57% / +24%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
440 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 79%
34.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
14.0 Crosses
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelsea
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Real Sociedad
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners
12.08.2014 Chelsea Chelsea 2-0 HT 2-0 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelsea
3-1
AWAY Real Sociedad
1.52 xG 0.97
15 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
449 Passes 301
26 Box Touches 17
12 Crosses 7
POST-MATCH Chelsea vs Real Sociedad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea got the better of Real Sociedad 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Chelsea as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, shots finished 15-17, expected goals 1.52 to 0.97.

What was the final score of Chelsea vs Real Sociedad?

Chelsea 3-1 Real Sociedad in the Friendlies on 15/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelsea vs Real Sociedad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelsea win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Chelsea 51%, draw 23%, Real Sociedad 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelsea), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chelsea) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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