Augsburg 3-1 St. Pauli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.02
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.74
Over 2.5
51%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2.91
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
4.01
6+ Goals
13%
18.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.85
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.1
X/1
17%
4.53
X/2
12%
7.22
X/X
8%
4.19
2/1
9%
27.5
2/2
10%
5.53
2/X
6%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
+0.9pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.5pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+2.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
54%
-4.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
46%
+4.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.7pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Augsburg EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 30%
-1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
1.48/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.53/1.07
-6% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -96% / +65%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
345 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 76%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
20.0 Crosses 16.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Augsburg
3W-1D-2L
AWAY St. Pauli
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
12.04.2010 St. Pauli St. Pauli 3-0 HT 0-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL2
22.11.2009 Augsburg Augsburg 3-2 HT 0-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
22.03.2009 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-1 HT 0-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL2
19.10.2008 Augsburg Augsburg 3-2 HT 0-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
27.04.2008 Augsburg Augsburg 1-0 HT 0-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
11.11.2007 St. Pauli St. Pauli 2-0 HT 1-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Augsburg
3-1
AWAY St. Pauli
2.74 xG 0.51
43% Ball Possession 57%
18 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 7
236 Passes 344
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
38 Box Touches 27
27 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Augsburg vs St. Pauli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Augsburg saw off St. Pauli 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Augsburg as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Augsburg had 43% of the ball to St. Pauli's 57%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 2.74 to 0.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Augsburg had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Augsburg and 1.67 for St. Pauli.

What was the final score of Augsburg vs St. Pauli?

Augsburg 3-1 St. Pauli in the Germany - Bundesliga on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Augsburg vs St. Pauli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Augsburg win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Augsburg 46%, draw 25%, St. Pauli 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Augsburg), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Augsburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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