Mainz 05 1-2 Werder Bremen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
34%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.87
2-3 Goals
42%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
3.18
6+ Goals
9%
10.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.87 — our 27% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.91
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
9%
12.8
X/1
13%
4.89
X/2
13%
6.79
X/X
10%
4.97
2/1
9%
24.0
2/2
14%
4.61
2/X
8%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
44%
-5.4pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.3pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+4.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.9pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 33%
-3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -8%
1.51/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.40
-19% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
333 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 76%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
21.5 Crosses 17.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Werder Bremen
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.08 xG 1.29
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
286 Passes 383
70% Pass Accuracy 75%
25 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.02.2024 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-1 HT 0-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
02.09.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 4-0 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
08.04.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 2-2 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
15.10.2022 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-2 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
21.04.2021 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-1 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
19.12.2020 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-1 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mainz 05
1-2
AWAY Werder Bremen
1.13 xG 2.07
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 4
389 Passes 268
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
39 Box Touches 26
37 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Werder Bremen nicked a narrow win over Mainz 05 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 34% — and on the day Werder Bremen made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Mainz 05 had 58% of the ball to Werder Bremen's 42%, shots finished 16-14, expected goals 1.13 to 2.07.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Werder Bremen led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Mainz 05 and 1.33 for Werder Bremen.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?

Mainz 05 1-2 Werder Bremen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mainz 05 win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 39%, draw 28%, Werder Bremen 34%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Mainz 05), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mainz 05) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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