Connahs Quay 0-1 Penybont — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.53
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
42%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.07
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.82
6+ Goals
8%
16.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
10%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
22%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
36%
-2.2pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.5pp
42%
Away Win
37%
+5.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.4pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Connahs Quay EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Penybont EU Bookmakers 40%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +11%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +22%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
262 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Connahs Quay
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Penybont
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
55% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Corners 5
13.01.2024 Penybont Penybont 0-1 HT 0-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
30.09.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 4-2 HT 2-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
15.04.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 0-0 HT 0-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
11.03.2023 Penybont Penybont 1-1 HT 0-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
22.10.2022 Penybont Penybont 0-1 HT 0-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
03.09.2022 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 2-0 HT 1-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Connahs Quay
0-1
AWAY Penybont
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Connahs Quay vs Penybont
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penybont edged past Connahs Quay 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Penybont as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Connahs Quay had 51% of the ball to Penybont's 49%, shots finished 10-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Connahs Quay had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Connahs Quay and 0.50 for Penybont.

What was the final score of Connahs Quay vs Penybont?

Connahs Quay 0-1 Penybont in the Wales - Premier League on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Connahs Quay vs Penybont?

Before kick-off our model rated an Penybont win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Connahs Quay 34%, draw 24%, Penybont 42%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Penybont), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Penybont) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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