Penybont 0-1 Connahs Quay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 13 Jan 2024

📅13/01/2024 · 🕒20:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.99
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
41%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.18
Over 2.5
47%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.6
No
53%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.89
2-3 Goals
35%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
2.98
6+ Goals
11%
9.51
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.89 — our 29% vs market 19.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
30%
+4.1pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.1pp
41%
Away Win
45%
-4.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
42%
+10.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
58%
-10.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-11.8pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+11.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penybont EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Connahs Quay EU Bookmakers 49%
-2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +4%
0.99/1.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/0.66
-15% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +79%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
303 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 420 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penybont
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Connahs Quay
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 11
5 Corners 3
30.09.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 4-2 HT 2-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
15.04.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 0-0 HT 0-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
11.03.2023 Penybont Penybont 1-1 HT 0-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
22.10.2022 Penybont Penybont 0-1 HT 0-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
03.09.2022 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 2-0 HT 1-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
20.11.2021 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 0-0 HT 0-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penybont
0-1
AWAY Connahs Quay
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 9
5 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Penybont vs Connahs Quay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Connahs Quay nicked a narrow win over Penybont 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Connahs Quay as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Penybont had 38% of the ball to Connahs Quay's 62%, shots finished 9-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Connahs Quay led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Penybont and 1.33 for Connahs Quay.

What was the final score of Penybont vs Connahs Quay?

Penybont 0-1 Connahs Quay in the Wales - Premier League on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penybont vs Connahs Quay?

Before kick-off our model rated an Connahs Quay win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Penybont 34%, draw 25%, Connahs Quay 41%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Connahs Quay), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Connahs Quay) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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