Cardiff MU 2-2 Caernarfon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 13 Jan 2024

📅13/01/2024 · 🕒20:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.57
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
35%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.15
Over 2.5
54%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.6
No
46%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.82
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.01
6+ Goals
12%
9.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
35%
+6.7pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.1pp
35%
Away Win
39%
-4.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
43%
+3.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
57%
-3.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.7pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cardiff MU EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 43%
+16% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.35/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.82/1.19
+3% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -6%
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
270 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cardiff MU
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Caernarfon Town
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 3.17
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 6
10 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 4
21.10.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 5-1 HT 2-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
29.10.2022 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 0-3 HT 0-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
27.08.2022 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 5-1 HT 3-1 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
06.11.2021 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU 0-1 HT 0-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
18.09.2021 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
27.03.2021 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 3-2 HT 1-0 Cardiff MU Cardiff MU GAL
POST-MATCH Cardiff MU vs Caernarfon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cardiff MU and Caernarfon Town shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Cardiff MU at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Caernarfon Town led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Cardiff MU and 3.17 for Caernarfon Town.

What was the final score of Cardiff MU vs Caernarfon Town?

Cardiff MU 2-2 Caernarfon Town in the Wales - Premier League on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cardiff MU vs Caernarfon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cardiff MU win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Cardiff MU 42%, draw 23%, Caernarfon Town 35%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Cardiff MU) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cardiff MU) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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