Colwyn Bay 2-3 Pontypridd Town AFC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 13 Jan 2024

📅13/01/2024 · 🕒20:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.25
Draw
31%
3.45
Away
34%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.18
Over 2.5
44%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.56
No
51%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.88
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
2.98
6+ Goals
8%
9.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.88 — our 27% vs market 19.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
41%
-5.3pp
31%
Draw
26%
+4.8pp
34%
Away Win
34%
+0.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
42%
+14.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
58%
-14.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
60%
-11.0pp
51%
BTTS No
40%
+11.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Colwyn Bay EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Pontypridd Town AFC EU Bookmakers 37%
-24% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
1.00/1.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.37
-33% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -52% / -11%
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
304 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Colwyn Bay
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Pontypridd Town AFC
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Corners 2
19.11.2023 Pontypridd Town AFC Pontypridd Town AFC 0-3 HT 0-1 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Colwyn Bay
2-3
AWAY Pontypridd Town AFC
63% Ball Possession 37%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Colwyn Bay vs Pontypridd Town AFC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pontypridd Town AFC squeezed past Colwyn Bay 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 31% / 34% — and on the day Pontypridd Town AFC made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Colwyn Bay had 63% of the ball to Pontypridd Town AFC's 37%, shots finished 9-15.

What was the final score of Colwyn Bay vs Pontypridd Town AFC?

Colwyn Bay 2-3 Pontypridd Town AFC in the Wales - Premier League on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Colwyn Bay vs Pontypridd Town AFC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Colwyn Bay win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Colwyn Bay 35%, draw 31%, Pontypridd Town AFC 34%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Colwyn Bay) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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