Al-Qadsiah 0-1 Al Shabab Riyadh — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒18:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.8
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
29%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.19
2-3 Goals
46%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
3.68
6+ Goals
9%
15.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 28% vs market 25.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
4%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
52%
-9.4pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.1pp
29%
Away Win
23%
+6.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+4.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-4.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.8pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al-Qadsiah EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Shabab Riyadh EU Bookmakers 26%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +2%
0.71/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.65/1.47
-36% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -14%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
352 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 76%
15.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
16.0 Crosses 15.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al-Qadsiah
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Al Shabab Riyadh
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.77 xG 1.86
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
250 Passes 344
75% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 32
3 Yellow Cards 2
05.03.2021 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh 1-1 HT 0-1 Al-Qadsiah Al-Qadsiah SUUD
06.12.2020 Al-Qadsiah Al-Qadsiah 2-1 HT 1-1 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh SUUD
22.02.2019 Al-Qadsiah Al-Qadsiah 0-1 HT 0-0 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh SUUD
26.10.2018 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh 2-1 HT 1-1 Al-Qadsiah Al-Qadsiah SUUD
21.12.2017 Al-Qadsiah Al-Qadsiah 1-2 HT 0-0 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh SUUD
19.08.2017 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh 4-1 HT 2-1 Al-Qadsiah Al-Qadsiah SUUD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al-Qadsiah
0-1
AWAY Al Shabab Riyadh
1.48 xG 0.67
46% Ball Possession 54%
18 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 2
301 Passes 370
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 9
26 Crosses 2
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Al-Qadsiah vs Al Shabab Riyadh
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Shabab Riyadh edged past Al-Qadsiah 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Al-Qadsiah at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Al-Qadsiah had 46% of the ball to Al Shabab Riyadh's 54%, shots finished 18-6, expected goals 1.48 to 0.67 — the balance of chances actually favoured Al-Qadsiah.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Shabab Riyadh led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Al-Qadsiah and 1.83 for Al Shabab Riyadh.

What was the final score of Al-Qadsiah vs Al Shabab Riyadh?

Al-Qadsiah 0-1 Al Shabab Riyadh in the Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al-Qadsiah vs Al Shabab Riyadh?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al-Qadsiah win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Al-Qadsiah 42%, draw 29%, Al Shabab Riyadh 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Al-Qadsiah) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Al-Qadsiah) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
SUUD More Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League
15 Sep 2024
18:50 Al Kholood vs Al Orubah Analysis →
21:00 Al Ittihad-Jeddah vs Al Wehda Analysis →