OFI 3-2 Aris Saloniki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 15 Sep 2024

OFI
3-2 HT 1-0
Aris Saloniki
📅15/09/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Greece - Super League – 2024/2025

OFI vs Aris Saloniki Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
3.08
Draw
21%
3.28
Away
38%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.75
Over 2.5
43%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.81
No
56%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.99
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.9
6+ Goals
9%
17.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.99 — our 32% vs market 27.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
5.05
1/2
8%
27.0
1/X
6%
13.7
X/1
13%
6.73
X/2
9%
4.62
X/X
9%
4.35
2/1
10%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.98
2/X
5%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
29%
+12.1pp
21%
Draw
27%
-6.2pp
38%
Away Win
44%
-5.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
53%
+3.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
47%
-3.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.3pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

OFI v Aris Saloniki — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME OFI EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Aris Saloniki EU Bookmakers 48%
+11% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +2%
1.31/1.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/0.97
+50% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +33%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
278 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 79%
17.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
14.5 Crosses 13.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7

OFI vs Aris Saloniki Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME OFI
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Aris Saloniki
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.86 xG 1.46
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
305 Passes 396
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.12.2023 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 1-0 HT 1-0 OFI OFI YUN
20.08.2023 OFI OFI 3-2 HT 2-1 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
20.02.2023 OFI OFI 0-3 HT 0-2 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
30.10.2022 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 1-1 HT 0-0 OFI OFI YUN
23.12.2021 OFI OFI 0-2 HT 0-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUK
16.12.2021 OFI OFI 1-1 HT 1-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN

OFI 3-2 Aris Saloniki — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME OFI
3-2
AWAY Aris Saloniki
2.56 xG 2.79
36% Ball Possession 64%
15 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
178 Passes 376
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 31
17 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH OFI vs Aris Saloniki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

OFI squeezed past Aris Saloniki 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (41% / 21% / 38%) promised a tight game; OFI found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, OFI had 36% of the ball to Aris Saloniki's 64%, shots finished 15-17, expected goals 2.56 to 2.79.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aris Saloniki led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for OFI and 1.67 for Aris Saloniki.

What was the final score of OFI vs Aris Saloniki?

OFI 3-2 Aris Saloniki in the Greece - Super League on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for OFI vs Aris Saloniki?

Before kick-off our model rated a OFI win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split OFI 41%, draw 21%, Aris Saloniki 38%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (OFI) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (OFI) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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